This is how that looked like:
The red line is the line of sight, where the smoke of the missile had been seen. The launch could have been anywhere near that line.
The colored lines is where tracks could be seen on the satellite images of July 20th.
The yellow circles is where these two come together and what would be excellent search areas for the exact location.
So Roland went out to have a look. The article he published can be found here. But the video is better.
Here are screenshots.
At the locations in the field there was nothing special to see, accept for the harvester that was also discovered in the satellite images:
But he looked around and found this location with burned and scorched earth:
(Just behind his ear on the left side, monument Saur Grave can be seen)
He also tweeted this photo with the article:
Where was the rocket launcher that downed #MH17? Clues on the ground: http://t.co/96Dh3qwo4b (Pic: C Miller) pic.twitter.com/xtxXTUBfBW
— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) July 22, 2014
That's what you get when a BUK is launching a missile:
(just a photo from internet for educational purposes)
But the question is: where is it?
I asked Roland. He didn't tell me...
Well, let's figure it out ourselves then. Let's have a good look at the environment:
Some electricity poles can be seen.
Yellow dots = electricity poles
Yellow arrow = direction of WWII monument Saur Grave
Red line = line of sight of photographer to smoke trail from the missile
Blue lines = field of view of cameraman
(Thanks to @obretix for setting me on the right track)
Link to Google maps.
How does this fit in with the prediction I made?
IT FITS EXACTLY!
It is absolutely in the line of site as calculated from the photo. We found the EXACT launch location!
(Well, unless the Russian trolls read my blog and wanted to play a practical joke with us of course.)
Of course... military specialists have to analyse it etcetera and we will eagerly look forward to the results they come up with.
And Roland will have a surprise for us too. He found stuff at this site and they will report about it later.
But why didn't I got this location in the first run? Well, because there where no tracks right through the field on this spot and because the satellite image ended there. Nevertheless, this is it. We won't find another location with burned wheat in the neighborhood.
Where there tracks at this location? I can see some here:
But it is not very clear. I hope Roland has made a lot of good photos...
Also see: (pro)Russian conversations recorded from Zello just after missile launch
Also see: transport of the BUK into Ukraine.how the Russians took down MH17
Also see: transport of the BUK out of Ukraine
Also see: EXIF data of missile launch photo confirmed
Spread the message, retweet this:
EXACT location pinpointed of #MH17 missile launch site with burned and scorched earth. http://t.co/Vtb2S3uYpz pic.twitter.com/VNqPxDFdhj
— djp3tros (@djp3tros) July 24, 2014